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Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Andersson V.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Guimaraes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Chaves
20%
Draws
36%
Vitoria Guimaraes
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chaves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes haven't matched Chaves's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Vitoria Guimaraes here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Chaves Clean Sheet 20%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chaves Vitoria Guimaraes
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 12 10
Draws 1 6
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.32 1.35
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes
0:1
Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Chaves
2:0
Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes
2:1
Mar 17, 2024 Liga Portugal
Chaves vs Vitoria Guimaraes
1:2
Oct 28, 2023 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Chaves
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chaves Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Vitoria Guimaraes Compare

Top Goalscorer Andersson V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves 32 / 100
Vitoria Guimaraes 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chaves Vitoria Guimaraes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chaves found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Vitoria Guimaraes has conceded goals in 65% of their last 26 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Chaves went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chaves VS Vitoria Guimaraes
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chaves

(Home)
04 Oct
SC Farense
4 : 0
Chaves
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3
Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0
Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1
Chaves
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Vitoria Guimaraes

(Away)
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1
Moreirense
12 Sept
Academico Viseu
2 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
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