Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026

Biala Podlaska

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chelmianka Chelm play Biala Podlaska in the III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chelmianka Chelm averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Biala Podlaska averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. In past meetings, Chelmianka Chelm won 2, Biala Podlaska won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 23, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Chelmianka Chelm and 1.56 for Biala Podlaska. This points to a Chelmianka Chelm double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Chelmianka Chelm

30%

Draws

34%

Biala Podlaska

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Chelmianka Chelm has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Biala Podlaska.
Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for Chelmianka Chelm.
League standings and seasonal metrics in III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 15%

Biala Podlaska Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chelmianka Chelm	Biala Podlaska
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	16	11
Draws	8	9
Losses	5	8
Goals Scored	2.38	2.25
Goals Conceded	0.88	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 23, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Biala Podlaska

Possession: 53% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Aug 2, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Biala Podlaska vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 47% - 59% Cards: 3 - 4

0:3

Mar 14, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Biala Podlaska vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 48% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Aug 21, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Biala Podlaska

Possession: 48% - 60% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Jun 1, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Biala Podlaska vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 56% - 51% Cards: 2 - 0

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelmianka Chelm Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomczyk P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Biala Podlaska Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05

Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelmianka Chelm 35 / 100

Biala Podlaska 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chelmianka Chelm Biala Podlaska

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelmianka Chelm scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Biala Podlaska let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Chelmianka Chelm went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Biala Podlaska lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelmianka Chelm VS Biala Podlaska

2.38 Goals Scored 2.25

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 100%

50% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avia Swidnik	34	23	8	3	84:35	77
2	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	22	8	4	66:30	74
3	Chelmianka Chelm	34	21	9	4	65:31	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	66:59	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	51:43	55
6	Czarni Polaniec	34	16	5	13	59:49	53
7	Biala Podlaska	34	14	10	10	60:48	52
8	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	14	9	11	61:45	51
9	Wislanie Skawina	34	15	6	13	52:51	51
10	Wisla II	34	15	4	15	67:58	49
11	Wisloka Debica	34	12	12	10	37:35	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	59:52	43
13	Naprzod Jedrzejow	34	11	5	18	45:55	38
14	Kolbuszowa Dolna	34	11	4	19	36:54	37
15	Stal Krasnik	34	9	7	18	42:52	34
16	Cracovia II	34	9	6	19	44:71	33
17	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	5	4	25	35:80	19
18	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	34	4	1	29	29:110	13