Sport Picks
Chelmianka Chelm vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
Poland
III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 
Match Events
66'
66'
Zbroinski B.
79'
79'
Tomczyk P.
90'
90'
Pietrzykowski I.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 game between Chelmianka Chelm and Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Chelmianka Chelm come out ahead of Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow on wins alone.
- Chelmianka Chelm are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 20%
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chelmianka Chelm | Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 5 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.63 | 1.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
1:1
Sep 20, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Chelmianka Chelm
0:0
May 30, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
3:4
Nov 9, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Chelmianka Chelm
1:6
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chelmianka Chelm Compare
Top Goalscorer Tomczyk P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Compare
Top Goalscorer Zbroinski B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chelmianka Chelm 40 / 100
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chelmianka Chelm Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CHE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chelmianka Chelm's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Defensive concern: Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow conceded in 81% of 27 recent games.
Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.
Chelmianka Chelm went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Chelmianka Chelm VS Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Chelmianka Chelm
(Home) 18 Jul
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Hetman Zamosc
11 Jul
Leczna
4 : 1 Chelmianka Chelm
04 Jul
Avia Swidnik
2 : 1 Chelmianka Chelm
30 May
Wisloka Debica
1 : 2 Chelmianka Chelm
23 May
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 0 Naprzod Jedrzejow
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Hetman Zamosc
23 May
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 0 Naprzod Jedrzejow
13 May
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 0 Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
09 May
Chelmianka Chelm
5 : 2 Star Starachowice
25 Apr
Chelmianka Chelm
4 : 1 Korona Kielce II
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Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
(Away) 25 Jul
Hetman Zamosc
2 : 2 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
11 Jul
Hutnik Krakow
3 : 1 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
08 Jul
Wisloka Debica
1 : 1 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
29 May
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
3 : 1 Star Starachowice
23 May
Wisla II
3 : 1 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Hetman Zamosc
2 : 2 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
11 Jul
Hutnik Krakow
3 : 1 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
08 Jul
Wisloka Debica
1 : 1 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
23 May
Wisla II
3 : 1 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
13 May
Swidniczanka Swidnik
0 : 3 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avia Swidnik | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 84:35 | 77 |
| 2 | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 66:30 | 74 |
| 3 | Chelmianka Chelm | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 65:31 | 72 |
| 4 | Korona Kielce II | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 66:59 | 58 |
| 5 | Star Starachowice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 51:43 | 55 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 59:49 | 53 |
| 7 | Biala Podlaska | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 60:48 | 52 |
| 8 | Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 61:45 | 51 |
| 9 | Wislanie Skawina | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 52:51 | 51 |
| 10 | Wisla II | 34 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 67:58 | 49 |
| 11 | Wisloka Debica | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 37:35 | 48 |
| 12 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 59:52 | 43 |
| 13 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 45:55 | 38 |
| 14 | Kolbuszowa Dolna | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 36:54 | 37 |
| 15 | Stal Krasnik | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42:52 | 34 |
| 16 | Cracovia II | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 44:71 | 33 |
| 17 | Swidniczanka Swidnik | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 35:80 | 19 |
| 18 | Sparta Kazimierza Wielka | 34 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 29:110 | 13 |
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
