Sport Picks
Chelmianka Chelm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Poland
III Liga - Group IV 
Match Events
75'
75'
Bis B.
88'
88'
Kuzdra J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this III Liga - Group IV matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chelmianka Chelm have won more games recently than Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Chelmianka Chelm taking it.
- Regular III Liga - Group IV form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 20%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chelmianka Chelm | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 3 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.03 | 1.4 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chelmianka Chelm
0:2
Aug 31, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2:0
Apr 19, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
5:4
Sep 21, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chelmianka Chelm
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chelmianka Chelm Compare
Top Goalscorer Kuzdra J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Compare
Top Goalscorer Bis B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chelmianka Chelm 85 / 100
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chelmianka Chelm Siarka Tarnobrzeg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chelmianka Chelm Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chelmianka Chelm scored in 90% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Chelmianka Chelm has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Siarka Tarnobrzeg conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Chelmianka Chelm VS Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Chelmianka Chelm
(Home) 10 Oct
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Star Starachowice
04 Oct
Hetman Zamosc
2 : 2 Chelmianka Chelm
26 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Biala Podlaska
19 Sept
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
0 : 0 Chelmianka Chelm
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Star Starachowice
26 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Biala Podlaska
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
29 Aug
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 0 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
19 Aug
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1 Wisloka Debica
Page 1 of 3
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
(Away) 09 Oct
Wislanie Skawina
4 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
03 Oct
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1 : 2 Korona Kielce II
26 Sept
Star Starachowice
4 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
19 Sept
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2 : 0 Biala Podlaska
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Wislanie Skawina
4 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
26 Sept
Star Starachowice
4 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
05 Sept
KS Wieczysta Krakow II
0 : 2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
23 Aug
Kolbuszowa Dolna
2 : 0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 20:6 | 30 |
| 2 | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 21:9 | 23 |
| 3 | Wisloka Debica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Wislanie Skawina | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:12 | 20 |
| 5 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27:21 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 7 | Jaroslaw | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 28:22 | 17 |
| 8 | Wisla II | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:17 | 16 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 27:27 | 14 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 11 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20:20 | 14 |
| 12 | Busko-Zdroj | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:26 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolbuszowa Dolna | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 14 | Biala Podlaska | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10:17 | 12 |
| 15 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11:15 | 12 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:22 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12:22 | 8 |
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)
