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Chelsea vs AC Milan Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly 2025 Stamford Bridge, London
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Coubis A.
Own Goal
8' Event
Joao Pedro
Assist: Neto P.
18'
Coubis A.

AI Match Summary

Chelsea in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chelsea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Chelsea
30%
Draws
37%
AC Milan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AC Milan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Chelsea haven't matched AC Milan's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Chelsea here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 16%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chelsea AC Milan
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 4 8
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.94 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Chelsea vs AC Milan
3:0
Aug 10, 2025 Club Friendly
Chelsea vs AC Milan
4:1
Oct 11, 2022 Champions League
AC Milan vs Chelsea
0:2
Oct 5, 2022 Champions League
Chelsea vs AC Milan
3:0
Aug 4, 2016 International Champions Cup
AC Milan vs Chelsea
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelsea Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Delap L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

AC Milan Compare

Top Goalscorer Fofana Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelsea 31 / 100
AC Milan 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chelsea AC Milan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Chelsea scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

AC Milan let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Chelsea has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chelsea VS AC Milan
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chelsea

(Home)
18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0
Chelsea
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2
Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3
Leeds
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1
Chelsea
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3
Brighton
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AC Milan

(Away)
20 Sept
AC Milan
3 : 0
Lecce
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
12 Sept
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
06 Sept
Juventus
1 : 1
AC Milan
28 Aug
AC Milan
2 : 0
Venezia
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