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Chelsea vs Leeds

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Stamford Bridge, London
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Gusto M.
15'
Acheampong J.
19'
Gudmundsson G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Chelsea
33%
Draws
27%
Leeds
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Chelsea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Chelsea have won more games recently than Leeds.
  • Model gives Chelsea a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 16%
Leeds Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chelsea Leeds
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 11
Draws 3 10
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 FA Cup
Chelsea vs Leeds
1:0
Feb 10, 2026 Premier League
Chelsea vs Leeds
2:2
Dec 3, 2025 Premier League
Leeds vs Chelsea
3:1
Feb 28, 2024 FA Cup
Chelsea vs Leeds
3:2
Mar 4, 2023 Premier League
Chelsea vs Leeds
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelsea Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Okafor N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelsea 39 / 100
Leeds 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chelsea Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Leeds's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Chelsea remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chelsea VS Leeds
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chelsea

(Home)
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1
Chelsea
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1
Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1
Manchester City
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1
Chelsea
04 May
Chelsea
1 : 3
Nottingham
Page 1 of 6

Leeds

(Away)
25 Jul
Wrexham
3 : 2
Leeds
24 May
West Ham
3 : 0
Leeds
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
11 May
Tottenham
1 : 1
Leeds
01 May
Leeds
3 : 1
Burnley
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)