Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Kvaratskhelia K.
14'
14'
Barcola B.
Assist: Hakimi A.
46'
46'
Sub
Neves J. In: Mayulu S.
Out: Neves J.
AI Match Summary
PSG in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
30%
19%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chelsea
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to PSG lately — more wins on the board than Chelsea.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Chelsea taking it.
- PSG arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor PSG, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors PSG here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 18%
PSG Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chelsea | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 17 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.85 | 2.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.81 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 17, 2026 Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG
0:3
Mar 11, 2026 Champions League
PSG vs Chelsea
5:2
Jul 13, 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
Chelsea vs PSG
3:0
Mar 9, 2016 Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG
1:2
Feb 16, 2016 Champions League
PSG vs Chelsea
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chelsea Compare
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
PSG Compare
Top Goalscorer Kvaratskhelia K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barcola B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chelsea 67 / 100
PSG 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chelsea PSG
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chelsea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Solid form: Chelsea remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Chelsea scored in 70% of their last 27 games.
PSG's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Chelsea VS PSG
2.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Chelsea
(Home) 30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
27 Aug
Chelsea
2 : 0 Luton
24 Aug
Fulham
2 : 3 Chelsea
15 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 1 Real Sociedad
09 Aug
Johor DT
3 : 3 Chelsea
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
27 Aug
Chelsea
2 : 0 Luton
15 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 1 Real Sociedad
08 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 0 AC Milan
05 Aug
Chelsea
0 : 1 Juventus
Page 1 of 4
PSG
(Away) 04 Sept
PSG
1 : 2 Monaco
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2 PSG
23 Aug
Rennes
2 : 2 PSG
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0 PSG
12 Aug
PSG
2 : 1 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2 PSG
23 Aug
Rennes
2 : 2 PSG
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0 PSG
05 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0 PSG
17 May
Paris FC
2 : 1 PSG
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1
