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Chelsea vs Tottenham - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Premier League Stamford Bridge, London
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chelsea host Tottenham in the Premier League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Chelsea have averaged 2 scored and 1.87 conceded recently, against Tottenham's 1.3 scored and 1.57 conceded. Past meetings favor Chelsea slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 1, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (2.13 xG vs 1.69) point toward Chelsea. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Chelsea
35%
Draws
19%
Tottenham
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chelsea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chelsea lately — more wins on the board than Tottenham.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Chelsea taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Chelsea have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 13%
Tottenham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chelsea Tottenham
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 3 8
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 2 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Chelsea vs Tottenham
1:2
May 19, 2026 Premier League
Chelsea vs Tottenham
2:1
Nov 1, 2025 Premier League
Tottenham vs Chelsea
0:1
Apr 3, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Tottenham
1:0
Dec 8, 2024 Premier League
Tottenham vs Chelsea
3:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelsea 75 / 100
Tottenham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chelsea Tottenham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelsea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Tottenham let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Chelsea went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelsea VS Tottenham
2.88 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chelsea

(Home)
10 Oct
Chelsea
5 : 1
Bournemouth
18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0
Chelsea
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2
Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3
Leeds
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1
Chelsea
Page 1 of 6

Tottenham

(Away)
10 Oct
Manchester United
1 : 1
Tottenham
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3
Aston Villa
15 Sept
Liverpool
3 : 1
Tottenham
12 Sept
Tottenham
0 : 0
Everton
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0
Tottenham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City 6 6 0 0 16:5 18
2 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 10:5 15
3 Brighton 6 4 1 1 18:5 13
4 Brentford 6 2 4 0 12:6 10
5 Everton 6 2 4 0 8:5 10
6 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 15:13 10
7 Leeds 6 2 3 1 8:5 9
8 Hull City 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
9 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 7:7 9
10 Ipswich 6 3 0 3 9:12 9
11 Newcastle Utd 6 2 2 2 10:13 8
12 Crystal Palace 6 2 1 3 9:12 7
13 Manchester United 6 1 3 2 9:9 6
14 Coventry 6 2 0 4 5:11 6
15 Nottingham 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Aston Villa 6 1 2 3 6:11 5
17 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 6:12 4
18 Bournemouth 6 0 3 3 7:13 3
19 Tottenham 6 0 3 3 3:9 3
20 Fulham 6 0 2 4 6:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)