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Chelsea vs Tottenham

World World

Club Friendly Accor Stadium, Sydney
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Gallagher C.
17' Event
Tonali S.
Assist: Solomon M.
21' Event
Estêvão
Assist: Gittens J.

AI Match Summary

Tottenham in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tottenham.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Chelsea
28%
Draws
50%
Tottenham
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Tottenham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chelsea lately — more wins on the board than Tottenham.
  • Tottenham are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Chelsea have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 14%
Tottenham Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chelsea Tottenham
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 3 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Chelsea vs Tottenham
1:2
May 19, 2026 Premier League
Chelsea vs Tottenham
2:1
Nov 1, 2025 Premier League
Tottenham vs Chelsea
0:1
Apr 3, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Tottenham
1:0
Dec 8, 2024 Premier League
Tottenham vs Chelsea
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelsea Compare

Top Goalscorer Estêvão
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Tottenham Compare

Top Goalscorer Tonali S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Richarlison
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelsea 23 / 100
Tottenham 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chelsea Tottenham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Chelsea scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Tottenham let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Chelsea has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chelsea VS Tottenham
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Chelsea

(Home)
01 Aug
Chelsea
1 : 2
Tottenham
28 Jul
Chelsea
6 : 4
Western Sydney Wanderers
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1
Chelsea
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1
Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1
Manchester City
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Tottenham

(Away)
01 Aug
Chelsea
1 : 2
Tottenham
29 Jul
Tottenham
2 : 1
Sydney FC
26 Jul
Auckland FC
0 : 2
Tottenham
22 Jul
Tottenham
1 : 0
Milton Keynes Dons
24 May
Tottenham
1 : 0
Everton
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