Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy Whaddon Road, Cheltenham

Cheltenham

Tue, Sep 22, 2026

3 - 2

06:00 PM

Exeter

Our Tip

Match Events

13'

James E.

34'

Sub

Barber M. In: Carter N.

Out: Barber M.

45'

Bickerstaff J.

Assist: Otchere K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Cheltenham

35%

Draws

20%

Exeter

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cheltenham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence

Exeter haven't matched Cheltenham's recent run of results.
45% — that's where the model lands on Cheltenham taking it.
Cheltenham have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Cheltenham, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Cheltenham Clean Sheet 68%

Exeter Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cheltenham	Exeter
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	10	4
Draws	9	9
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	1.67	0.96
Goals Conceded	1.7	1.46
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 22, 2026 EFL Trophy

Cheltenham vs Exeter

3:2

Aug 13, 2025 EFL Cup

Cheltenham vs Exeter

2:0

Apr 1, 2024 League One

Cheltenham vs Exeter

1:2

Sep 16, 2023 League One

Exeter vs Cheltenham

1:0

Mar 18, 2023 League One

Cheltenham vs Exeter

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cheltenham Compare

Top Goalscorer Bickerstaff J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Gordon J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Cummins C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.08

Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cheltenham 59 / 100

Exeter 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cheltenham Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cheltenham Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 6:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cheltenham's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Cheltenham went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Exeter let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Cheltenham VS Exeter

2.13 Goals Scored 0.75

1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63

100% Over 1.5 50%

88% Over 2.5 13%

63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cheltenham

(Home)

22 Sept

Cheltenham

3 : 2

Exeter

19 Sept

Colchester

1 : 1

Cheltenham

12 Sept

Crawley Town

1 : 3

Cheltenham

05 Sept

Cheltenham

2 : 2

Grimsby

01 Sept

Cheltenham

3 : 2

York City

Page 1 of 6

Exeter

(Away)

22 Sept

Cheltenham

3 : 2

Exeter

19 Sept

Exeter

0 : 0

Tranmere

12 Sept

Port Vale

1 : 0

Exeter

08 Sept

Exeter

2 : 0

Tottenham U21

05 Sept

Exeter

0 : 0

Walsall

Page 1 of 6