Sport Picks
Cheltenham vs Newport Prediction & H2H Stats
England
League Two 2025/2026 Whaddon Road, Cheltenham 
Match Events
16'
16'
Baker M.
42'
42'
Sub
Cundy R. In: Jude-Boyd A.
Out: Cundy R.
46'
46'
Sub
Davison J. In: Faal M.
Out: Davison J.
AI Match Summary
Cheltenham in this League Two 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cheltenham.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
38%
35%
27%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cheltenham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
38%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Cheltenham lately — more wins on the board than Newport.
- 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Cheltenham here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Cheltenham Clean Sheet 68%
Newport Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cheltenham | Newport |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.26 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.7 | 1.67 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 League Two
Cheltenham vs Newport
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 League Two
Newport vs Cheltenham
0:2
Feb 22, 2025 League Two
Newport vs Cheltenham
0:3
Sep 3, 2024 EFL Trophy
Newport vs Cheltenham
1:2
Aug 10, 2024 League Two
Cheltenham vs Newport
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cheltenham Compare
Top Goalscorer Miller G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Newport Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cheltenham 41 / 100
Newport 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cheltenham Newport
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cheltenham Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cheltenham's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Cheltenham went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Newport let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Cheltenham VS Newport
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Cheltenham
(Home) 26 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 1 Chesterfield
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 Exeter
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Cheltenham
12 Sept
Crawley Town
1 : 3 Cheltenham
05 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 2 Grimsby
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 1 Chesterfield
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 Exeter
05 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 2 Grimsby
01 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 York City
15 Aug
Cheltenham
2 : 1 Rotherham
Page 1 of 3
Newport
(Away) 26 Sept
Newport
2 : 1 Grimsby
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
19 Sept
Accrington
0 : 0 Newport
12 Sept
Newport
1 : 1 Fleetwood Town
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
19 Sept
Accrington
0 : 0 Newport
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
01 Sept
Salford
2 : 1 Newport
22 Aug
Bristol Rovers
5 : 3 Newport
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bromley | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 87 |
| 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | 36 |
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)
