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Chepstow Town vs Grange Harlequins

Wales Wales

FA Cup 2012/2013
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AI Match Summary

Chepstow Town play Grange Harlequins in the FA Cup 2012/2013. Chepstow Town are favorites here. Recently, Chepstow Town averaged 1.94 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. Grange Harlequins averaged 1.1 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. In past meetings, Chepstow Town won 1, Grange Harlequins won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 10, 2012 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Chepstow Town and 1.63 for Grange Harlequins. This points to a Chepstow Town double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Chepstow Town
15%
Draws
22%
Grange Harlequins
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chepstow Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • Chepstow Town picked up more points recently compared to Grange Harlequins.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Chepstow Town Clean Sheet 14%
Grange Harlequins Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chepstow Town Grange Harlequins
Matches Played 17 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 0 3
Losses 8 20
Goals Scored 1.94 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.76 2.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 10, 2012 FA Cup
Chepstow Town vs Grange Harlequins
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chepstow Town 60 / 100
Grange Harlequins 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chepstow Town Grange Harlequins

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chepstow Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Chepstow Town & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.82
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chepstow Town attacking → ← attacking Grange Harlequins

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chepstow Town scored in 76% of their last 17 games.

Grange Harlequins let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Chepstow Town went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Grange Harlequins lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 24
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25