Sport Picks

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Cherno More vs Arda

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Ticha, Varna
Cherno More Logo

Cherno More

2 - 3
FT
Arda Logo

Arda

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Donchev A.
46' Event
Karagaren B.
53' Event
Karagaren B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Cherno More and Arda finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cherno More
15%
Draws
64%
Arda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arda come out ahead of Cherno More on wins alone.
  • Arda are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular efbet League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Cherno More Clean Sheet 10%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cherno More Arda
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.03 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.41 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 efbet League
Cherno More vs Arda
2:3
May 3, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Cherno More
0:0
Mar 4, 2026 efbet League
Cherno More vs Arda
0:0
Dec 12, 2025 Bulgarian Cup
Cherno More vs Arda
0:3
Sep 22, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs Cherno More
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cherno More Compare

Top Goalscorer Donchev A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Teles D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Karagaren B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Yusein S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cherno More 14 / 100
Arda 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cherno More Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cherno More scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Arda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Cherno More has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cherno More VS Arda
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cherno More

(Home)
11 Sept
Cherno More
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
30 Aug
CSKA Sofia
3 : 1
Cherno More
21 Aug
Cherno More
3 : 1
Dunav Ruse
14 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
4 : 1
Cherno More
Page 1 of 6

Arda

(Away)
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1
Lok. Sofia
08 Aug
Dunav Ruse
0 : 2
Arda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
5 Lok. Plovdiv 36 14 13 9 36:41 55
6 Arda 36 15 9 12 42:34 54
7 Cherno More 36 14 12 10 40:34 54
8 Botev Plovdiv 36 13 7 16 49:45 46
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