Sport Picks

Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Ticha

Cherno More

2 - 3

Arda

Our Tip

Match Events

Donchev A.

46'

Karagaren B.

53'

Karagaren B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Cherno More and Arda finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Cherno More

28%

Draws

22%

Arda

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Cherno More

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Arda come out ahead of Cherno More on wins alone.
Cherno More are the model's pick here, at 50%.
Regular efbet League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%

Cherno More Clean Sheet 68%

Arda Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cherno More	Arda
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	11	13
Draws	9	7
Losses	8	9
Goals Scored	1.13	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.25	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 efbet League

Cherno More vs Arda

Possession: 56% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

2:3

May 3, 2026 efbet League

Arda vs Cherno More

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 3 - 4

0:0

Mar 4, 2026 efbet League

Cherno More vs Arda

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Dec 12, 2025 Bulgarian Cup

Cherno More vs Arda

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

0:3

Sep 22, 2025 efbet League

Arda vs Cherno More

Possession: 52% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cherno More Compare

Top Goalscorer Donchev A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Teles D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Karagaren B.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Yusein S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cherno More 59 / 100

Arda 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cherno More Arda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cherno More went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Cherno More's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Arda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Cherno More VS Arda

1.13 Goals Scored 1.5

1.25 Goals Conceded 1

50% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
5	Lok. Plovdiv	36	14	13	9	36:41	55
6	Arda	36	15	9	12	42:34	54
7	Cherno More	36	14	12	10	40:34	54
8	Botev Plovdiv	36	13	7	16	49:45	46