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Cherno More vs Lok. Sofia

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Ticha, Varna
Fri, Sep 11, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cherno More host Lok. Sofia in the efbet League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Cherno More have averaged 0.97 scored and 1.34 conceded recently, against Lok. Sofia's 1.48 scored and 1.63 conceded. Head-to-head, Cherno More have won 2 to Lok. Sofia's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Nov 22, 2025, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.50 xG vs 1.50) point toward Cherno More. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Cherno More
20%
Draws
32%
Lok. Sofia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cherno More

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Lok. Sofia haven't matched Cherno More's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Cherno More taking it.
  • Regular efbet League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Cherno More Clean Sheet 16%
Lok. Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cherno More Lok. Sofia
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 9 6
Draws 8 11
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2025 efbet League
Cherno More vs Lok. Sofia
0:1
Jul 18, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Cherno More
1:1
Dec 3, 2024 efbet League
Cherno More vs Lok. Sofia
4:0
Aug 4, 2024 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Cherno More
2:1
Apr 4, 2024 efbet League
Cherno More vs Lok. Sofia
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cherno More 41 / 100
Lok. Sofia 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cherno More Lok. Sofia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lok. Sofia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Cherno More scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Lok. Sofia's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Cherno More VS Lok. Sofia
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cherno More

(Home)
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
30 Aug
CSKA Sofia
3 : 1
Cherno More
21 Aug
Cherno More
3 : 1
Dunav Ruse
14 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
4 : 1
Cherno More
09 Aug
Cherno More
2 : 3
Ludogorets
Page 1 of 6

Lok. Sofia

(Away)
06 Sept
Lok. Sofia
1 : 2
Ludogorets
31 Aug
Dunav Ruse
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1
Lok. Sofia
08 Aug
Lok. Sofia
1 : 3
CSKA 1948 Sofia
31 Jul
Slavia Sofia
1 : 1
Lok. Sofia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 8 8 0 0 21:4 24
2 Ludogorets 8 6 2 0 14:6 20
3 CSKA Sofia 7 5 2 0 17:5 17
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 8 5 1 2 15:8 16
5 Arda 8 5 1 2 13:7 16
6 Slavia Sofia 8 2 4 2 8:6 10
7 Botev Plovdiv 8 3 1 4 11:14 10
8 Spartak Varna 8 2 3 3 10:14 9
9 Septemvri Sofia 8 2 2 4 7:13 8
10 Botev Vratsa 8 2 1 5 7:17 7
11 Lok. Plovdiv 8 2 0 6 4:10 6
12 Cherno More 8 1 1 6 8:17 4
13 Dunav Ruse 8 1 1 6 7:15 4
14 Lok. Sofia 7 0 3 4 8:14 3
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)