Sport Picks
Chesham vs Chelmsford
England
National League South 2025/2026 The Meadow, Chesham 
Match Events
49'
49'
Abrahams T.
69'
69'
Murphy J.
AI Match Summary
Chelmsford in this National League South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chelmsford.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chelmsford
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Chesham lately — more wins on the board than Chelmsford.
- 57% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Chesham Clean Sheet 10%
Chelmsford Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chesham | Chelmsford |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 15 | 13 |
| Draws | 3 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.86 | 1.89 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 National League South
Chesham vs Chelmsford
0:2
Aug 30, 2025 National League South
Chelmsford vs Chesham
2:1
Feb 1, 2025 National League South
Chelmsford vs Chesham
1:1
Jan 21, 2025 National League South
Chesham vs Chelmsford
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chesham Compare
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Chelmsford Compare
Top Goalscorer Abrahams T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Murphy J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chesham 34 / 100
Chelmsford 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chesham Chelmsford
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CHE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Chesham scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Defensive concern: Chelmsford conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Chesham remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Chesham VS Chelmsford
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Chesham
(Home) 08 Aug
Weston-super-Mare
3 : 0 Chesham
28 Jul
Chertsey Town
2 : 1 Chesham
21 Jul
Basingstoke
2 : 6 Chesham
25 Apr
Dover Ath.
2 : 2 Chesham
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
06 Apr
Chesham
4 : 1 Slough Town
28 Mar
Chesham
1 : 0 Tonbridge
24 Mar
Chesham
1 : 2 Hornchurch
21 Mar
Chesham
4 : 2 Maidstone
Page 1 of 3
Chelmsford
(Away) 08 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Chelmsford
14 Jul
Canvey Island
0 : 1 Chelmsford
11 Jul
Stortford
1 : 3 Chelmsford
25 Apr
Chelmsford
1 : 3 Eastbourne Borough
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Chelmsford
14 Jul
Canvey Island
0 : 1 Chelmsford
11 Jul
Stortford
1 : 3 Chelmsford
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
14 Apr
Hornchurch
3 : 3 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worthing FC | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 99:52 | 84 |
| 2 | Hornchurch | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 81:64 | 81 |
| 3 | Torquay | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 87:62 | 80 |
| 4 | Dorking Wanderers | 46 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 78:61 | 79 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 55:48 | 79 |
| 6 | Weston-super-Mare | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 61:48 | 78 |
| 7 | Maidenhead | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 66:41 | 77 |
| 8 | Maidstone | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 72:50 | 77 |
| 9 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 73:54 | 77 |
| 10 | Chelmsford | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 73:62 | 73 |
| 11 | Chesham | 46 | 21 | 9 | 16 | 68:55 | 72 |
| 12 | AFC Totton | 46 | 20 | 6 | 20 | 60:79 | 66 |
| 13 | Dagenham & Red. | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 61:62 | 64 |
| 14 | Tonbridge | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 66:65 | 60 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 53:54 | 59 |
| 16 | Slough Town | 46 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 69:87 | 54 |
| 17 | Salisbury | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 50:65 | 53 |
| 18 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 56:72 | 53 |
| 19 | Farnborough | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 72:92 | 53 |
| 20 | Dover Ath. | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 60:75 | 50 |
| 21 | Bath City | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 50:77 | 43 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 53:80 | 42 |
| 23 | Enfield Town | 46 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 55:82 | 40 |
| 24 | Eastbourne Borough | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 59:90 | 36 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
