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Chesham W vs Keynsham Town W

England England

Women's National League South 2013/2014
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Keynsham Town W is highly favored to claim all three points on their visit to Chesham W, backed by a win probability of 59%. Chesham W averages 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded in recent matches. Keynsham Town W shows a form average of 1.5 goals scored and 3.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Chesham W, 1 wins for Keynsham Town W, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 22.12.13 ended in a 5:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 2.88 for Chesham W and 3.23 for Keynsham Town W, suggesting the primary value lies in the Keynsham Town W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Chesham W
15%
Draws
59%
Keynsham Town W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Keynsham Town W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Chesham W picked up more points recently compared to Keynsham Town W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.88 vs 3.23 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 53%
Over 4.5 Goals 27%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Chesham W Clean Sheet 10%
Keynsham Town W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chesham W Keynsham Town W
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 4 10
Draws 0 1
Losses 26 21
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 4 3.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 5.33 4.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

22.12.13 Women's National League South
Keynsham Town W vs Chesham W
5:2
20.10.13 Women's National League South
Chesham W vs Keynsham Town W
2:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Chesham W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Keynsham Town W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chesham W 25 / 100
Keynsham Town W 55 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chesham W Keynsham Town W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Keynsham Town W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Keynsham Town W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +44.6%
5.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +6.8%
1.20
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Keynsham Town W will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Chesham W 29%
Keynsham Town W 47%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Chesham W will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Keynsham Town W's early runs.

Chesham W 25%
Keynsham Town W 62%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Keynsham Town W to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Chesham W tries to push forward.

Chesham W 26%
Keynsham Town W 59%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Keynsham Town W increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Chesham W 27%
Keynsham Town W 56%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Chesham W's defense, opening up opportunities for Keynsham Town W's forward line.

Chesham W 23%
Keynsham Town W 65%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Keynsham Town W to manage the closing stages, while Chesham W searches for late drama.

Chesham W 30%
Keynsham Town W 68%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chesham W attacking → ← attacking Keynsham Town W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chesham W have found the net in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Keynsham Town W have conceded at least one goal in 88% of their last 32 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 5.00 goals per match.

Chesham W remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Keynsham Town W suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

12 Points in last 5 31
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
5.33 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.75