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Chester vs Curzon Ashton

England England

FA Cup Deva Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chester play Curzon Ashton in the FA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chester averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Curzon Ashton averaged 1.29 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. In past meetings, Chester won 2, Curzon Ashton won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 28, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Chester and 0.69 for Curzon Ashton. This points to a Chester double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Chester
25%
Draws
27%
Curzon Ashton
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Chester

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Chester picked up more points recently compared to Curzon Ashton.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Chester Clean Sheet 28%
Curzon Ashton Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chester Curzon Ashton
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 14 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.39 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.36 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 National League North
Curzon Ashton vs Chester
0:1
Sep 27, 2025 FA Cup
Chester vs Curzon Ashton
5:1
Aug 19, 2025 National League North
Chester vs Curzon Ashton
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 National League North
Chester vs Curzon Ashton
1:1
Oct 26, 2024 National League North
Curzon Ashton vs Chester
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chester Compare

Top Goalscorer Zanzala O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mottley-Henry D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Curzon Ashton Compare

Top Goalscorer Spencer J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chester 49 / 100
Curzon Ashton 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chester Curzon Ashton

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Chester or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chester attacking → ← attacking Curzon Ashton

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chester scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Curzon Ashton let in goals in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Chester went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Curzon Ashton lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 31
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13