Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chester vs Morecambe

England England

National League North Deva Stadium, Chester
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Lewis P.

AI Match Summary

The National League North game between Chester and Morecambe finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Morecambe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Chester
15%
Draws
64%
Morecambe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Morecambe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Chester carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 21% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Chester Clean Sheet 20%
Morecambe Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chester Morecambe
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 18 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.23 1.72
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 National League North
Chester vs Morecambe
0:1
Oct 14, 2025 FA Cup
Chester vs Morecambe
2:0
Oct 11, 2025 FA Cup
Morecambe vs Chester
1:1
Jul 16, 2022 Club Friendly
Chester vs Morecambe
1:1
Jul 24, 2018 Club Friendly
Chester vs Morecambe
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chester Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Morecambe Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewis P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chester 31 / 100
Morecambe 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chester Morecambe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chester Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chester found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Morecambe conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Chester remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chester VS Morecambe
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chester

(Home)
19 Sept
Lower Breck
1 : 2
Chester
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1
Chester
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1
Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1
Chester
31 Aug
Chester
0 : 1
Morecambe
Page 1 of 7

Morecambe

(Away)
19 Sept
Morecambe
2 : 0
Southport
12 Sept
Morecambe
3 : 0
Brackley
08 Sept
Southport
2 : 1
Morecambe
05 Sept
Morecambe
4 : 0
Buxton
31 Aug
Chester
0 : 1
Morecambe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hereford 9 7 1 1 21:4 22
2 Oxford City 9 6 1 2 17:6 19
3 Macclesfield 9 5 3 1 12:6 18
4 Spalding United 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
5 Hebburn Town 9 5 2 2 15:15 17
6 South Shields 8 5 2 1 9:10 17
7 Buxton 9 5 1 3 18:14 16
8 Bedford 9 5 0 4 13:13 15
9 Chester 9 4 2 3 9:8 14
10 Morecambe 9 4 1 4 13:8 13
11 Merthyr Town 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
12 King’s Lynn 9 4 1 4 15:15 13
13 Harborough 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
14 Worksop 9 4 0 5 9:12 12
15 Scarborough Athletic 9 3 2 4 14:11 11
16 Chorley 9 3 2 4 14:16 11
17 Marine 9 3 0 6 10:11 9
18 Telford 9 2 3 4 8:10 9
19 Hednesford 9 2 3 4 13:16 9
20 Southport 9 2 2 5 11:18 8
21 Brackley 8 2 2 4 7:16 8
22 Radcliffe 9 2 0 7 8:16 6
23 Darlington FC 9 2 0 7 11:20 6
24 Spennymoor 9 1 3 5 9:19 6
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)