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Chester vs Spalding United

England England

National League North Deva Stadium, Chester
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Ward D.

AI Match Summary

The National League North game between Chester and Spalding United finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chester.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Chester
20%
Draws
61%
Spalding United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Spalding United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Chester carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Spalding United's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Chester Clean Sheet 20%
Spalding United Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chester Spalding United
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 17 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.16 1.82
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 National League North
Chester vs Spalding United
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chester Compare

Top Goalscorer Ward D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Spalding United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chester 12 / 100
Spalding United 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chester Spalding United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spalding United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chester's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Spalding United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Chester remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chester VS Spalding United
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chester

(Home)
19 Sept
Lower Breck
1 : 2
Chester
12 Sept
Buxton
3 : 1
Chester
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1
Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 1
Chester
31 Aug
Chester
0 : 1
Morecambe
Page 1 of 7

Spalding United

(Away)
19 Sept
Spalding United
2 : 0
Hanley Town
12 Sept
Spalding United
2 : 1
Bedford
08 Sept
Spennymoor
1 : 3
Spalding United
05 Sept
Spalding United
2 : 0
Southport
31 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1
Spalding United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hereford 9 7 1 1 21:4 22
2 Oxford City 9 6 1 2 17:6 19
3 Macclesfield 9 5 3 1 12:6 18
4 Spalding United 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
5 Hebburn Town 9 5 2 2 15:15 17
6 South Shields 8 5 2 1 9:10 17
7 Buxton 9 5 1 3 18:14 16
8 Bedford 9 5 0 4 13:13 15
9 Chester 9 4 2 3 9:8 14
10 Morecambe 9 4 1 4 13:8 13
11 Merthyr Town 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
12 King’s Lynn 9 4 1 4 15:15 13
13 Harborough 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
14 Worksop 9 4 0 5 9:12 12
15 Scarborough Athletic 9 3 2 4 14:11 11
16 Chorley 9 3 2 4 14:16 11
17 Marine 9 3 0 6 10:11 9
18 Telford 9 2 3 4 8:10 9
19 Hednesford 9 2 3 4 13:16 9
20 Southport 9 2 2 5 11:18 8
21 Brackley 8 2 2 4 7:16 8
22 Radcliffe 9 2 0 7 8:16 6
23 Darlington FC 9 2 0 7 11:20 6
24 Spennymoor 9 1 3 5 9:19 6
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs)