Sport Picks
Chesterfield vs Gillingham - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
League Two SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield 
Match Events
22'
22'
Koroma J.
29'
29'
Dobbs L.
31'
31'
McFadzean K.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this League Two matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gillingham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Chesterfield average 1.54 goals a game right now, well clear of Gillingham's 1.38.
- Chesterfield are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Chesterfield Clean Sheet 68%
Gillingham Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chesterfield | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 1, 2026 League Two
Chesterfield vs Gillingham
1:1
Feb 17, 2026 League Two
Chesterfield vs Gillingham
1:0
Aug 19, 2025 League Two
Gillingham vs Chesterfield
4:1
Apr 8, 2025 League Two
Chesterfield vs Gillingham
1:1
Aug 31, 2024 League Two
Gillingham vs Chesterfield
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chesterfield Compare
Top Goalscorer Koroma J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Gillingham Compare
Top Goalscorer Hale R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chesterfield 68 / 100
Gillingham 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chesterfield Gillingham
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chesterfield Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chesterfield scored in 79% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Gillingham conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Chesterfield stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Chesterfield VS Gillingham
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Chesterfield
(Home) 30 Oct
Newport
4 : 1 Chesterfield
24 Oct
Chesterfield
5 : 1 Crewe
20 Oct
Chesterfield
1 : 1 Colchester
17 Oct
Port Vale
1 : 0 Chesterfield
10 Oct
Crawley Town
2 : 2 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Chesterfield
5 : 1 Crewe
20 Oct
Chesterfield
1 : 1 Colchester
03 Oct
Chesterfield
4 : 2 Tranmere
22 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 1 Port Vale
19 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 0 York City
Page 1 of 3
Gillingham
(Away) 31 Oct
Shrewsbury
1 : 2 Gillingham
24 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 4 Grimsby
20 Oct
Gillingham
1 : 1 Port Vale
17 Oct
Accrington
3 : 1 Gillingham
13 Oct
Gillingham
4 : 3 Brighton U21
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Shrewsbury
1 : 2 Gillingham
17 Oct
Accrington
3 : 1 Gillingham
10 Oct
Rotherham
1 : 4 Gillingham
26 Sept
York City
3 : 0 Gillingham
05 Sept
Rochdale
1 : 4 Gillingham
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 | York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9:10 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
