Sport Picks
Chesterfield vs Grimsby
England
League Two 2025/2026 SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield 
Match Events
31'
31'
Mandeville L.
Assist: Gordon L.
34'
34'
Bonis L.
Assist: Braybrooke S.
41'
41'
Kabia J.
Assist: Staunton R.
AI Match Summary
Chesterfield in this League Two 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chesterfield.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
17%
70%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Grimsby
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Grimsby have won more games recently than Chesterfield.
- 70% — that's where the model lands on Grimsby taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Chesterfield here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Chesterfield Clean Sheet 19%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chesterfield | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 27 |
| Wins | 12 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.71 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.86 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.71 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 14, 2026 League Two
Chesterfield vs Grimsby
2:1
Nov 15, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Chesterfield
0:1
Jan 18, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Chesterfield
1:1
Nov 12, 2024 EFL Trophy
Chesterfield vs Grimsby
3:2
Sep 7, 2024 League Two
Chesterfield vs Grimsby
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chesterfield Compare
Top Goalscorer Mandeville L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Bonis L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.43
Grimsby Compare
Top Goalscorer Kabia J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chesterfield 16 / 100
Grimsby 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chesterfield Grimsby
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick GRI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chesterfield found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Grimsby has conceded goals in 63% of their last 27 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Chesterfield has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Chesterfield VS Grimsby
0.86 Goals Scored 1.88
0.71 Goals Conceded 1
43% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Chesterfield
(Home) 14 Jul
Halifax
3 : 2 Chesterfield
11 Jul
Chesterfield
0 : 0 Sheffield Utd
15 May
Notts County
0 : 0 Chesterfield
10 May
Chesterfield
0 : 1 Notts County
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2 Chesterfield
Page 1 of 6
11 Jul
Chesterfield
0 : 0 Sheffield Utd
10 May
Chesterfield
0 : 1 Notts County
25 Apr
Chesterfield
2 : 0 Crewe
14 Apr
Chesterfield
2 : 1 Grimsby
11 Apr
Chesterfield
1 : 1 Tranmere
Page 1 of 4
Grimsby
(Away) 28 Jul
Grimsby
5 : 1 Lincoln City
25 Jul
Hartlepool
0 : 3 Grimsby
18 Jul
Zorya
1 : 1 Grimsby
11 Jul
Cleethorpes
0 : 0 Grimsby
15 May
Salford
2 : 2 Grimsby
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Hartlepool
0 : 3 Grimsby
18 Jul
Zorya
1 : 1 Grimsby
11 Jul
Cleethorpes
0 : 0 Grimsby
15 May
Salford
2 : 2 Grimsby
02 May
Tranmere
1 : 1 Grimsby
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bromley | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 87 |
| 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | 36 |
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)
