Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chesterfield vs Oldham

England England

League Two 2025/2026 SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sub
Grigg W. In: Bonis L.
Out: Grigg W.
22' Event
Drummond K.
Assist: Stevens J.
26'
Dunkley C.

AI Match Summary

The League Two 2025/2026 game between Chesterfield and Oldham finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Oldham.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Chesterfield
33%
Draws
27%
Oldham
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Chesterfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Oldham carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Chesterfield taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Chesterfield Clean Sheet 20%
Oldham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chesterfield Oldham
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 10 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 League Two
Chesterfield vs Oldham
0:3
Jan 1, 2026 League Two
Oldham vs Chesterfield
1:1
Mar 16, 2024 National League
Oldham vs Chesterfield
2:2
Aug 19, 2023 National League
Chesterfield vs Oldham
1:1
Feb 25, 2023 National League
Chesterfield vs Oldham
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chesterfield Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Oldham Compare

Top Goalscorer Drummond K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fondop-Talum M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chesterfield 40 / 100
Oldham 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chesterfield Oldham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chesterfield found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Oldham has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Chesterfield remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chesterfield VS Oldham
1 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chesterfield

(Home)
14 Jul
Halifax
3 : 2
Chesterfield
11 Jul
Chesterfield
0 : 0
Sheffield Utd
15 May
Notts County
0 : 0
Chesterfield
10 May
Chesterfield
0 : 1
Notts County
02 May
Swindon
1 : 2
Chesterfield
Page 1 of 6

Oldham

(Away)
28 Jul
Oldham
0 : 1
Stockport County
24 Jul
Huddersfield
3 : 1
Oldham
21 Jul
Oldham
1 : 3
Bolton
02 May
Oldham
3 : 0
Accrington
25 Apr
Newport
3 : 2
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bromley462415771:4687
2Milton Keynes Dons462414886:4586
3Cambridge Utd462216866:3382
4Salford462561561:5181
5Notts County462481474:5280
6Chesterfield462116971:5679
7Grimsby4622121274:5078
8Barnet4621131270:5376
9Swindon462291570:5975
10Oldham4618141460:4468
11Crewe4619101764:5867
12Colchester4618121662:4966
13Walsall4618111756:5665
14Bristol Rovers461952256:6562
15Fleetwood Town4615161557:5861
16Accrington4614112147:5853
17Gillingham4613141953:7253
18Cheltenham4614102253:7952
19Shrewsbury4613102342:6949
20Newport461272748:7743
21Tranmere4610112554:7941
22Crawley Town468162244:6840
23Harrogate461092739:6839
24Barrow46992845:7836
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)