Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield

Port Vale

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the EFL Trophy. This one's hard to separate. Chesterfield have averaged 1.18 scored and 1.04 conceded recently, against Port Vale's 0.93 scored and 1.25 conceded. Head-to-head, Chesterfield have won 1 to Port Vale's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Jan 25, 2025, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 0.81 vs 1.25, favoring Chesterfield. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Chesterfield

30%

Draws

23%

Port Vale

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chesterfield

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Chesterfield at 1.18 per game, Port Vale at 0.93.
Model gives Chesterfield a 47% chance of winning this.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Port Vale, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%

Chesterfield Clean Sheet 19%

Port Vale Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chesterfield	Port Vale
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	11	11
Draws	9	6
Losses	8	11
Goals Scored	1.18	0.93
Goals Conceded	1.04	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.81	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2025 League Two

Chesterfield vs Port Vale

1:1

Sep 14, 2024 League Two

Port Vale vs Chesterfield

1:0

Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly

Chesterfield vs Port Vale

0:1

Mar 30, 2018 League Two

Port Vale vs Chesterfield

2:1

Aug 19, 2017 League Two

Chesterfield vs Port Vale

2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chesterfield 49 / 100

Port Vale 23 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chesterfield Port Vale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chesterfield Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chesterfield scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Port Vale's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Defensive concern: Port Vale conceded in 57% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Chesterfield VS Port Vale

0.75 Goals Scored 1.38

1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88

50% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chesterfield

(Home)

01 Sept

Chesterfield

1 : 1

Gillingham

29 Aug

Rotherham

2 : 1

Chesterfield

22 Aug

Salford

0 : 1

Chesterfield

15 Aug

Chesterfield

0 : 1

Fleetwood Town

08 Aug

Fleetwood Town

1 : 0

Chesterfield

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Port Vale

(Away)

01 Sept

Swindon

3 : 1

Port Vale

29 Aug

Port Vale

0 : 0

Crewe

22 Aug

Port Vale

1 : 1

Tranmere

15 Aug

Oldham

2 : 0

Port Vale

07 Aug

Wolves

3 : 0

Port Vale

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