Sport Picks

Chesterfield vs Port Vale - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England

EFL Trophy SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield

Chesterfield

Tue, Sep 22, 2026

2 - 1

06:00 PM

Port Vale

Our Tip

Match Events

18'

Lawrence-Gabriel J.

39'

Hernandez O.

Assist: Byers G.

46'

Sub

Watters M. In: Asamoah M.

Out: Watters M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Chesterfield

15%

Draws

48%

Port Vale

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Port Vale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Chesterfield at 1.36 per game, Port Vale at 0.93.
Model gives Chesterfield a 37% chance of winning this.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Port Vale, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%

Chesterfield Clean Sheet 68%

Port Vale Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chesterfield	Port Vale
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	12	12
Draws	8	4
Losses	8	12
Goals Scored	1.36	0.93
Goals Conceded	1.14	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 17, 2026 League Two

Port Vale vs Chesterfield

1:0

Sep 22, 2026 EFL Trophy

Chesterfield vs Port Vale

2:1

Jan 25, 2025 League Two

Chesterfield vs Port Vale

1:1

Sep 14, 2024 League Two

Port Vale vs Chesterfield

1:0

Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly

Chesterfield vs Port Vale

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chesterfield Compare

Top Goalscorer Marsh L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Port Vale Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez O.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chesterfield 95 / 100

Port Vale 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chesterfield Port Vale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chesterfield Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 6:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chesterfield scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Chesterfield stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Port Vale conceded in 57% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Chesterfield VS Port Vale

2.5 Goals Scored 0.88

1.63 Goals Conceded 1

100% Over 1.5 50%

75% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chesterfield

(Home)

17 Oct

Port Vale

1 : 0

Chesterfield

10 Oct

Crawley Town

2 : 2

Chesterfield

03 Oct

Chesterfield

4 : 2

Tranmere

26 Sept

Cheltenham

2 : 1

Chesterfield

22 Sept

Chesterfield

2 : 1

Port Vale

Page 1 of 6

Port Vale

(Away)

17 Oct

Port Vale

1 : 0

Chesterfield

10 Oct

Port Vale

1 : 0

Grimsby

06 Oct

Port Vale

2 : 0

Mansfield

22 Sept

Chesterfield

2 : 1

Port Vale

19 Sept

Walsall

2 : 0

Port Vale

Page 1 of 6