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Chiasso vs Baden

Switzerland Switzerland

Promotion League 2022/2023 Stadio Comunale Riva IV, Chiasso
Sat, Feb 25, 2023
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chiasso host Baden in the Promotion League 2022/2023. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Baden have shipped 1.89 goals a game lately, while Chiasso have conceded 0.92 and scored 1.46. Head-to-head, Chiasso have won 3 to Baden's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 25, 2023, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.35 vs 1.43, favoring Chiasso. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Chiasso
20%
Draws
52%
Baden
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Baden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Baden average 1.64 goals a game right now, well clear of Chiasso's 1.46.
  • Win probability leans Baden's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Promotion League 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Chiasso Clean Sheet 17%
Baden Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chiasso Baden
Matches Played 13 28
Wins 8 8
Draws 1 8
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 1.46 1.64
Goals Conceded 0.92 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2023 Promotion League
Chiasso vs Baden
0:0
Aug 24, 2022 Promotion League
Baden vs Chiasso
3:2
Apr 9, 2006 Challenge League
Baden vs Chiasso
1:2
Sep 10, 2005 Challenge League
Chiasso vs Baden
3:0
Apr 6, 2005 Challenge League
Baden vs Chiasso
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiasso 23 / 100
Baden 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chiasso Baden

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baden Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiasso scored in 85% of their last 13 games.

Defensive concern: Baden conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Chiasso stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Baden
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chiasso

(Home)
02 Aug
Varesina
2 : 2
Chiasso
26 Nov
Chiasso
2 : 0
Bulle
19 Nov
Chiasso
2 : 1
Breitenrain
12 Nov
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 1
Chiasso
05 Nov
Chiasso
0 : 2
Bavois
Page 1 of 3

Baden

(Away)
29 Aug
St. Gallen II
0 : 3
Baden
22 Aug
Baden
3 : 1
Eschen/Mauren
14 Aug
Freienbach
2 : 2
Baden
08 Aug
Baden
2 : 1
Winterthur II
31 Jul
Baden
2 : 0
Gossau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luzern II 34 24 4 6 95:53 74
2 Stade Nyonnais 34 21 5 8 83:45 66
3 Baden 34 18 6 10 61:48 58
4 Cham 34 17 5 12 60:47 54
5 Rapperswil-Jona 34 17 5 12 59:54 54
6 Etoile-Carouge 34 15 9 10 63:38 52
7 Bruhl SG 34 14 12 8 59:45 52
8 Breitenrain 34 15 8 11 57:57 51
9 Basel II 34 12 10 12 53:57 44
10 Kriens 34 13 6 15 53:58 43
11 Young Boys II 34 11 8 15 64:67 39
12 Zurich II 34 11 7 16 53:56 38
13 Bulle 34 11 6 17 49:57 37
14 Bavois 34 10 9 15 45:65 37
15 St. Gallen II 34 9 7 18 57:86 32
16 Biel 34 6 10 18 32:60 26
17 Young Fellows Juventus 34 4 5 25 27:77 15
18 Chiasso 34 0 34 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League 2022/2023 (Relegation)