Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chiba vs Machida Zelvia

Japan Japan

J1 League Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Nakayama Y.
34' Event
Yengi T.
Assist: Duke M.
45'
Tsukui T.

AI Match Summary

Machida Zelvia in this J1 League matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Machida Zelvia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Chiba
15%
Draws
69%
Machida Zelvia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Machida Zelvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Machida Zelvia lately — more wins on the board than Chiba.
  • 69% — that's where the model lands on Machida Zelvia taking it.
  • Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Machida Zelvia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Chiba Clean Sheet 10%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chiba Machida Zelvia
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 4 22
Draws 1 3
Losses 23 7
Goals Scored 0.96 1.63
Goals Conceded 2.04 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Machida Zelvia
0:4
May 10, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Machida Zelvia
0:2
Feb 27, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs Chiba
2:1
Jul 22, 2023 J2 League
Machida Zelvia vs Chiba
1:3
Jun 3, 2023 J2 League
Chiba vs Machida Zelvia
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chiba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Machida Zelvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakayama Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yengi T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiba 10 / 100
Machida Zelvia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chiba Machida Zelvia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Machida Zelvia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Machida Zelvia has conceded goals in 59% of their last 32 outings.

Recent resilience: Chiba stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chiba VS Machida Zelvia
0.88 Goals Scored 2.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chiba

(Home)
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
29 Aug
Kawasaki Frontale
4 : 2
Chiba
26 Aug
Chiba
2 : 1
Azul Claro Numazu
21 Aug
FC Tokyo
2 : 0
Chiba
15 Aug
Chiba
0 : 4
Machida Zelvia
Page 1 of 6

Machida Zelvia

(Away)
02 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1
Kawasaki Frontale
29 Aug
Mito
1 : 1
Machida Zelvia
26 Aug
Machida Zelvia
3 : 0
Iwate Grulla Morioka
23 Aug
Machida Zelvia
3 : 1
Urawa Reds
15 Aug
Chiba
0 : 4
Machida Zelvia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Machida Zelvia 5 4 1 0 15:4 13
2 Kashiwa Reysol 5 4 0 1 10:6 12
3 Kashima Antlers 5 4 0 1 13:10 12
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5 3 2 0 11:2 11
5 Vissel Kobe 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
6 Cerezo Osaka 5 3 0 2 5:5 9
7 Mito 5 2 2 1 10:7 8
8 FC Tokyo 5 2 2 1 9:8 8
9 Yokohama F. Marinos 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
10 Okayama 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
11 Kawasaki Frontale 5 1 3 1 9:8 6
12 Gamba Osaka 5 1 3 1 8:9 6
13 Nagoya Grampus 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
14 Urawa Reds 5 2 0 3 11:15 6
15 Kyoto 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
16 Shimizu S-Pulse 5 1 1 3 2:4 4
17 V-Varen Nagasaki 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
18 Avispa Fukuoka 5 1 0 4 8:9 3
19 Verdy 5 0 2 3 2:8 2
20 Chiba 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)