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Chiba vs Okayama - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Gaucho L.
Assist: Motoyama H.
36'
Sub
Kida H. In: Taguchi T.
Out: Kida H.
41' Event
Tanaka K.
Assist: Taguchi T.

AI Match Summary

The J1 League game between Chiba and Okayama finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Okayama.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Chiba
15%
Draws
64%
Okayama
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okayama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Okayama come out ahead of Chiba on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Chiba Clean Sheet 14%
Okayama Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chiba Okayama
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 6 14
Draws 2 2
Losses 21 12
Goals Scored 1.1 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2026 Emperors Cup
Okayama vs Chiba
1:0
Sep 2, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Okayama
1:2
Aug 10, 2024 J2 League
Okayama vs Chiba
0:0
Jun 1, 2024 J2 League
Chiba vs Okayama
2:1
Oct 1, 2023 J2 League
Okayama vs Chiba
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Tanaka K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Okayama Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaucho L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kamiya Yuta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chiba 31 / 100
Okayama 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chiba Okayama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Okayama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Okayama's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Chiba remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chiba VS Okayama
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chiba

(Home)
07 Oct
Okayama
1 : 0
Chiba
29 Sept
Iwata
4 : 2
Chiba
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
13 Sept
Verdy
1 : 1
Chiba
09 Sept
Kamatamare Sanuki
0 : 2
Chiba
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Okayama

(Away)
07 Oct
Okayama
1 : 0
Chiba
29 Sept
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
1 : 2
Okayama
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
13 Sept
Urawa Reds
1 : 2
Okayama
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 12:5 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 17:12 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 20:6 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 21:10 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 14:8 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 16:12 13
8 Kashima Antlers 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
9 Okayama 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
10 Urawa Reds 8 4 0 4 16:18 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 7:12 11
12 Shimizu S-Pulse 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
13 Mito 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
14 Kyoto 8 2 2 4 11:15 8
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 10:15 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 8:14 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 7:14 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 9:12 4
19 Verdy 8 0 4 4 4:12 4
20 Chiba 8 1 1 6 7:18 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)