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Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC

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MLS Soldier Field
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AI Match Summary

Chicago Fire play Toronto FC in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chicago Fire averaged 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Toronto FC averaged 1.63 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Chicago Fire won 3, Toronto FC won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Chicago Fire and 1.56 for Toronto FC. This points to a Chicago Fire double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Chicago Fire
6%
Draws
4%
Toronto FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Chicago Fire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Chicago Fire has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Toronto FC.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Chicago Fire.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in MLS provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 15%
Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chicago Fire Toronto FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 7
Draws 6 13
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 2 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
2:2
Mar 15, 2025 MLS
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
1:2
Sep 29, 2024 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC
1:1
Jun 15, 2024 MLS
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chicago Fire Compare

Top Goalscorer Lod R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutman A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Toronto FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Sargent J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chicago Fire 84 / 100
Toronto FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chicago Fire Toronto FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chicago Fire scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Toronto FC let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Chicago Fire went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Toronto FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chicago Fire VS Toronto FC
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307