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Chicago Fire vs DC United

USA USA

MLS Soldier Field
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AI Match Summary

Chicago Fire play DC United in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chicago Fire averaged 2.1 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. DC United averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. In past meetings, Chicago Fire won 2, DC United won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 13, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for Chicago Fire and 1.81 for DC United. This points to a Chicago Fire double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Chicago Fire
27%
Draws
24%
DC United
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Chicago Fire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Chicago Fire picked up more points recently compared to DC United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 11%
DC United Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chicago Fire DC United
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 17 5
Draws 6 12
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 2.1 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 MLS
DC United vs Chicago Fire
1:3
Mar 15, 2026 MLS
Chicago Fire vs DC United
1:2
Jun 7, 2025 MLS
DC United vs Chicago Fire
1:7
Mar 2, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs DC United
2:2
Sep 8, 2024 MLS
Chicago Fire vs DC United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chicago Fire Compare

Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

DC United Compare

Top Goalscorer Peltola M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chicago Fire 46 / 100
DC United 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chicago Fire DC United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Chicago Fire or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chicago Fire attacking → ← attacking DC United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chicago Fire scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

DC United let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Chicago Fire went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

DC United lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 27
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307