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Chicago Stars W vs Orlando Pride W

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NWSL Women SeatGeek Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Chicago Stars W play Orlando Pride W in the NWSL Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chicago Stars W averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.96 conceded. Orlando Pride W averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Chicago Stars W won 1, Orlando Pride W won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 26, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Chicago Stars W and 1.56 for Orlando Pride W. This points to a Orlando Pride W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Chicago Stars W
16%
Draws
50%
Orlando Pride W
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Orlando Pride W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Chicago Stars W picked up more points recently compared to Orlando Pride W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Chicago Stars W Clean Sheet 15%
Orlando Pride W Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chicago Stars W Orlando Pride W
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.14 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 NWSL Women
Chicago Stars W vs Orlando Pride W
0:3
Sep 7, 2025 NWSL Women
Chicago Stars W vs Orlando Pride W
5:2
Mar 15, 2025 NWSL Women
Orlando Pride W vs Chicago Stars W
6:0
Nov 9, 2024 NWSL Women
Orlando Pride W vs Chicago Stars W
4:1
Sep 8, 2024 NWSL Women
Chicago Stars W vs Orlando Pride W
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chicago Stars W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Orlando Pride W Compare

Top Goalscorer Banda B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ovalle L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chicago Stars W 34 / 100
Orlando Pride W 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chicago Stars W Orlando Pride W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Orlando Pride W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chicago Stars W attacking → ← attacking Orlando Pride W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chicago Stars W scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Orlando Pride W let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Chicago Stars W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Orlando Pride W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 42
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1San Diego Wave W1491421:1328
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5Kansas City Current W1380521:1724
6North Carolina Courage W1263320:1421
7Gotham FC W1263312:721
8Orlando Pride W1352618:1917
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