Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chievo vs AC Milan U23

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona
Sun, May 10, 2026
2 - 1
05:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Douglas Costa
53' Event
Sardo J.
90'
Turano L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Chievo
20%
Draws
28%
AC Milan U23
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chievo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Chievo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Chievo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AC Milan U23, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • AC Milan U23 have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Chievo Clean Sheet 11%
AC Milan U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chievo AC Milan U23
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.53 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs AC Milan U23
2:1
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs AC Milan U23
1:3
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
AC Milan U23 vs Chievo
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chievo Compare

Top Goalscorer Douglas Costa
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

AC Milan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sardo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chievo 35 / 100
AC Milan U23 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chievo AC Milan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ACM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chievo scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Chievo went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

AC Milan U23 let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Chievo VS AC Milan U23
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chievo

(Home)
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
AC Leon
2 : 2
Chievo
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2
Castellanzese
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AC Milan U23

(Away)
04 Aug
Monza
4 : 2
AC Milan U23
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3
AC Milan U23
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
USD Casatese 4
AC Leon 0
Chievo 2
AC Milan U23 1
Final
USD Casatese 2
Chievo 3