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Chievo vs Sondrio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Paloschi A.

AI Match Summary

Chievo in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chievo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Chievo
30%
Draws
27%
Sondrio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chievo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Sondrio haven't matched Chievo's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Chievo a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Chievo have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Chievo Clean Sheet 17%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chievo Sondrio
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.53 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs Sondrio
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Chievo
0:2
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs Sondrio
5:0
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Chievo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chievo Compare

Top Goalscorer Paloschi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sondrio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chievo 39 / 100
Sondrio 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chievo Sondrio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chievo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chievo scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Sondrio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Chievo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Chievo VS Sondrio
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chievo

(Home)
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
AC Leon
2 : 2
Chievo
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2
Castellanzese
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Sondrio

(Away)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)