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Chile vs Argentina

South America South America

Copa América MetLife Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chile play Argentina in the Copa América. Argentina are favorites here. Recently, Chile averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Argentina averaged 2.23 goals scored and 0.43 conceded. In past meetings, Chile won 0, Argentina won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 6, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Chile and 1.90 for Argentina. This points to a Argentina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Chile
15%
Draws
60%
Argentina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Argentina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence
  • Chile picked up more points recently compared to Argentina.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.90 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Chile Clean Sheet 10%
Argentina Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chile Argentina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 25
Draws 6 2
Losses 14 3
Goals Scored 1.2 2.23
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.67 0.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2025 World Championship
Chile vs Argentina
0:1
Sep 6, 2024 World Championship
Argentina vs Chile
3:0
Jun 26, 2024 Copa América
Chile vs Argentina
0:1
Jan 28, 2022 World Championship
Chile vs Argentina
1:2
Jun 14, 2021 Copa América
Argentina vs Chile
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chile Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Argentina Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chile 25 / 100
Argentina 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chile Argentina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Argentina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Argentina & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chile attacking → ← attacking Argentina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chile scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Argentina let in goals in 33% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Chile went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Argentina lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 77
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
1.67 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Argentina33005:09
2Canada31111:24
3Chile30210:12
4Peru30120:31
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Venezuela33006:19
2Ecuador31114:34
3Mexico31111:14
4Jamaica30031:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Uruguay33009:19
2Panama32016:56
3USA31023:33
4Bolivia30031:100
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Colombia32106:27
2Brazil31205:25
3Costa Rica31112:44
4Paraguay30033:80