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Chile vs Paraguay

World World

Friendly International 2024 Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chile play Paraguay in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chile averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Paraguay averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Chile won 3, Paraguay won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 20, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Chile and 1.54 for Paraguay. This points to a Paraguay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Chile
24%
Draws
39%
Paraguay
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Paraguay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Chile picked up more points recently compared to Paraguay.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.54 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Chile Clean Sheet 15%
Paraguay Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chile Paraguay
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.2 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 World Championship
Paraguay vs Chile
1:0
Jun 12, 2024 Friendly International
Chile vs Paraguay
3:0
Nov 17, 2023 World Championship
Chile vs Paraguay
0:0
Mar 28, 2023 Friendly International
Chile vs Paraguay
3:2
Nov 11, 2021 World Championship
Paraguay vs Chile
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chile Compare

Top Goalscorer Davila V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vargas E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Paraguay Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chile 36 / 100
Paraguay 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chile Paraguay

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Paraguay or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chile attacking → ← attacking Paraguay

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chile scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Paraguay let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Chile went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Paraguay lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 45
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.57 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13