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China U23 vs Uzbekistan U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Games Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
China U23 Logo

China U23

Sat, Oct 3, 2026
3 - 2
06:00 AM
Uzbekistan U23 Logo

Uzbekistan U23

Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Hu H.
Assist: Kuai Jiwen
17'
He Yiran
39'
Bakhromov S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
China U23
20%
Draws
42%
Uzbekistan U23
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Uzbekistan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • China U23 haven't matched Uzbekistan U23's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Uzbekistan U23 a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Uzbekistan U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor China U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
China U23 Clean Sheet 20%
Uzbekistan U23 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric China U23 Uzbekistan U23
Matches Played 30 38
Wins 17 22
Draws 8 5
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.53 2.11
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.92
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Asian Games
China U23 vs Uzbekistan U23
3:2
Sep 10, 2026 Friendly International
China U23 vs Uzbekistan U23
2:0
Jan 17, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Uzbekistan U23 vs China U23
0:1
Jan 12, 2020 AFC Asian Cup U23
China U23 vs Uzbekistan U23
0:2
Jan 12, 2018 AFC Asian Cup U23
Uzbekistan U23 vs China U23
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

China U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Hu H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wang Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Uzbekistan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakhromov S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shodiboev S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

China U23 28 / 100
Uzbekistan U23 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
China U23 Uzbekistan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uzbekistan U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

China U23 found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

China U23 has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Uzbekistan U23 conceded in 58% of 38 recent games.

Scoring Trends

China U23 VS Uzbekistan U23
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

China U23

(Home)
03 Oct
China U23
3 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
30 Sept
South Korea U23
2 : 1
China U23
26 Sept
China U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
23 Sept
China U23
0 : 0
United Arab Emirates U23
20 Sept
Iran U23
0 : 0
China U23
Page 1 of 6

Uzbekistan U23

(Away)
03 Oct
China U23
3 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
30 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
1 : 2
Japan U23
25 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
3 : 0
Saudi Arabia U23
22 Sept
Vietnam U23
0 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
18 Sept
Kuwait U23
0 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
South Korea U23 4
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Thailand U23 0
Uzbekistan U23 3
Saudi Arabia U23 0
Japan U23 1
North Korea U23 0
Semi-finals
South Korea U23 2
China U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 1
Japan U23 2
Final
South Korea U23 1
Japan U23 0
China U23 3
Uzbekistan U23 2