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China vs Turkmenistan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Longxing Football Stadium, Chongqing
Fri, Oct 2, 2026
VS
11:35 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

China host Turkmenistan in the Friendly International. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. China have averaged 0.93 scored and 1.59 conceded recently, against Turkmenistan's 0.88 scored and 1.65 conceded. Head-to-head, China have won 2 to Turkmenistan's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Oct 2, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.06, favoring China. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
China
15%
Draws
51%
Turkmenistan
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Turkmenistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to China lately — more wins on the board than Turkmenistan.
  • Model gives Turkmenistan a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • China have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
China Clean Sheet 20%
Turkmenistan Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric China Turkmenistan
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 9 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.93 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 Friendly International
China vs Turkmenistan
0:0
May 31, 1997 World Championship
China vs Turkmenistan
1:0
May 3, 1997 World Championship
Turkmenistan vs China
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

China 16 / 100
Turkmenistan 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
China Turkmenistan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Turkmenistan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Turkmenistan conceded in 96% of 26 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Turkmenistan has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

China found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

China VS Turkmenistan
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

China

(Home)
06 Oct
China
0 : 1
Tajikistan
02 Oct
China
0 : 5
Palestine
27 Sept
China
0 : 3
New Zealand
24 Sept
China
3 : 0
Maldives
09 Jun
China
0 : 0
Thailand
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Turkmenistan

(Away)
31 Mar
Thailand
2 : 1
Turkmenistan
18 Nov
Turkmenistan
3 : 1
Chinese Taipei
14 Oct
Turkmenistan
2 : 1
Sri Lanka
09 Oct
Sri Lanka
1 : 0
Turkmenistan
05 Sept
Turkmenistan
1 : 2
Oman
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