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Chmelov vs Tatran Bystre

Slovakia Slovakia

Slovak Cup
Sun, Jul 20, 2025
2 - 1
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chmelov play Tatran Bystre in the Slovak Cup. Chmelov are favorites here. Recently, Chmelov averaged 1 goals scored and 1 conceded. Tatran Bystre averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. In past meetings, Chmelov won 1, Tatran Bystre won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 20, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Chmelov and 1.25 for Tatran Bystre. This points to a Chmelov double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Chmelov
25%
Draws
15%
Tatran Bystre
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Chmelov

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Chmelov picked up more points recently compared to Tatran Bystre.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Chmelov Clean Sheet 19%
Tatran Bystre Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chmelov Tatran Bystre
Matches Played 2 4
Wins 1 0
Draws 0 0
Losses 1 4
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2025 Slovak Cup
Chmelov vs Tatran Bystre
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chmelov 58 / 100
Tatran Bystre 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chmelov Tatran Bystre

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chmelov Win (1)
Secondary Pick Chmelov & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chmelov attacking → ← attacking Tatran Bystre

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chmelov scored in 50% of their last 2 games.

Tatran Bystre let in goals in 100% of their last 4 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Chmelov went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Tatran Bystre lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

3 Points in last 5 0
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.75