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Chorley vs Bury FC Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Whitehouse B.
(Penalty)
62' Event
Carr T.
84' Event
Threlkeld O.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Chorley and Bury FC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bury FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Chorley
15%
Draws
49%
Bury FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bury FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Bury FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Bury FC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Chorley Clean Sheet 10%
Bury FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chorley Bury FC
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 20
Draws 6 1
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.1 2.54
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Chorley vs Bury FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chorley Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Bury FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Carr T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Threlkeld O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chorley 10 / 100
Bury FC 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chorley Bury FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bury FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chorley's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Bury FC has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Chorley stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chorley VS Bury FC
1.63 Goals Scored 3.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Chorley

(Home)
26 Sept
Chorley
2 : 1
Spalding United
19 Sept
Warrington Rylands
0 : 1
Chorley
12 Sept
King’s Lynn
2 : 0
Chorley
08 Sept
Chorley
5 : 2
Darlington FC
05 Sept
Oxford City
4 : 0
Chorley
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Bury FC

(Away)
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3
Gainsborough
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
12 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 0
AFC Emley
05 Sept
Bury FC
8 : 0
Wythenshawe FC
31 Aug
Hyde
2 : 1
Bury FC
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