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Stadium Background

Cienciano vs Cajamarca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cienciano host Cajamarca in the Liga 1. Cienciano go into this one as the clear favorite. Cajamarca have shipped 1.9 goals a game lately, while Cienciano have conceded 1.41 and scored 1.73. Head-to-head, Cienciano have won 3 to Cajamarca's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 26, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 2.13 vs 1.44, favoring Cienciano. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Cienciano
15%
Draws
0%
Cajamarca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cienciano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cienciano lately — more wins on the board than Cajamarca.
  • Win probability leans Cienciano's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Cienciano Clean Sheet 68%
Cajamarca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cienciano Cajamarca
Matches Played 37 29
Wins 18 3
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.73 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cienciano
2:2
Oct 13, 2025 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cienciano
0:2
May 24, 2025 Liga 1
Cienciano vs Cajamarca
6:1
Sep 13, 2024 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cienciano
1:2
Apr 7, 2024 Liga 1
Cienciano vs Cajamarca
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cienciano 86 / 100
Cajamarca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cienciano Cajamarca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cienciano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cajamarca let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Cajamarca registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Cienciano scored in 73% of their last 37 games.

Scoring Trends

Cienciano VS Cajamarca
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cienciano

(Home)
08 Oct
Moquegua
0 : 2
Cienciano
30 Sept
Cienciano
1 : 1
Los Chankas
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
18 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 0
Cienciano
11 Sept
Cienciano
2 : 0
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 8

Cajamarca

(Away)
11 Oct
Cajamarca
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
20 Sept
Sport Huancayo
3 : 2
Cajamarca
11 Sept
Cajamarca
1 : 2
Juan Pablo II
04 Sept
Alianza Atl.
3 : 2
Cajamarca
29 Aug
Cajamarca
2 : 4
Universitario de Deportes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sporting Cristal 11 7 1 3 21:10 22
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 11 7 1 3 18:7 22
3 Alianza Atl. 11 7 1 3 23:18 22
4 Sport Huancayo 11 7 1 3 17:13 22
5 Universitario de Deportes 11 6 3 2 21:18 21
6 Juan Pablo II 11 5 4 2 21:13 19
7 FBC Melgar 11 5 4 2 18:11 19
8 A. Lima 11 5 4 2 16:11 19
9 Sport Boys 11 5 3 3 15:10 18
10 Cusco 11 6 0 5 20:16 18
11 Atletico Grau 11 5 2 4 14:13 17
12 Cienciano 11 3 2 6 14:18 11
13 FC Cajamarca 11 3 2 6 18:24 11
14 Comerciantes Unidos 11 2 4 5 18:19 10
15 Los Chankas 11 2 3 6 11:24 9
16 Moquegua 11 1 4 6 7:19 7
17 AD Tarma 11 1 3 7 7:21 6
18 Cajamarca 11 0 2 9 11:25 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)