Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Citta di Fasano vs Gravina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Corvino V.
55' Event
Barranco B.
61' Event
De Angelis P.

AI Match Summary

Citta di Fasano in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Citta di Fasano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Citta di Fasano
11%
Draws
80%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Gravina average 2 goals a game right now, well clear of Citta di Fasano's 1.5.
  • Gravina are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Citta di Fasano here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Citta di Fasano Clean Sheet 16%
Gravina Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Citta di Fasano Gravina
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 16 16
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.5 2
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Citta di Fasano vs Gravina
4:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Citta di Fasano vs Gravina
3:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Citta di Fasano
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Citta di Fasano
1:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Citta di Fasano vs Gravina
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Citta di Fasano Compare

Top Goalscorer Corvino V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barranco B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Gravina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Citta di Fasano 11 / 100
Gravina 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Citta di Fasano Gravina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Citta di Fasano scored in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Gravina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Citta di Fasano remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Citta di Fasano VS Gravina
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414