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Cittadella Vis Modena vs Tropical Coriano Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Cericola M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Cittadella Vis Modena and Tropical Coriano finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cittadella Vis Modena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Cittadella Vis Modena
20%
Draws
29%
Tropical Coriano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cittadella Vis Modena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Tropical Coriano haven't matched Cittadella Vis Modena's recent run of results.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Cittadella Vis Modena taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Cittadella Vis Modena here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Cittadella Vis Modena Clean Sheet 68%
Tropical Coriano Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cittadella Vis Modena Tropical Coriano
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.04 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Cittadella Vis Modena vs Tropical Coriano
1:0
Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Cittadella Vis Modena vs Tropical Coriano
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Tropical Coriano vs Cittadella Vis Modena
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cittadella Vis Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Cericola M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Tropical Coriano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cittadella Vis Modena 50 / 100
Tropical Coriano 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cittadella Vis Modena Tropical Coriano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cittadella Vis Modena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tropical Coriano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Cittadella Vis Modena's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Cittadella Vis Modena went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tropical Coriano's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Cittadella Vis Modena VS Tropical Coriano
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cittadella Vis Modena

(Home)
27 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 1
Correggese
20 Sept
Lentigione
0 : 1
Cittadella Vis Modena
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
12 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
1 : 0
Tropical Coriano
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
Page 1 of 6

Tropical Coriano

(Away)
20 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 1
Tropical Coriano
16 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 2
Lentigione
12 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
1 : 0
Tropical Coriano
06 Sept
Tropical Coriano
1 : 1
Varese FC
10 May
Crema
2 : 0
Tropical Coriano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 5 5 0 0 14:1 15
2 Pro Sesto 5 4 0 1 16:4 12
3 Pro Patria 5 4 0 1 10:4 12
4 USD Casatese 5 3 1 1 10:6 10
5 Lentigione 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
6 Castellanzese 5 3 0 2 11:4 9
7 Sant'Angelo 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
8 Pavia 5 1 4 0 4:1 7
9 Cittadella Vis Modena 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
10 Correggese 5 2 1 2 5:8 7
11 Varese FC 5 1 3 1 5:4 6
12 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
13 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
14 Varesina 5 1 1 3 7:10 4
15 Oltrepo 5 1 0 4 3:12 3
16 Arconatese 5 0 2 3 3:12 2
17 Crema 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
18 US Pontedera 4 0 0 4 3:12 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)