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Ciudad de Alfaro vs Varea

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 16 2013/2014
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 16 2013/2014 game between Ciudad de Alfaro and Varea finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Ciudad de Alfaro
20%
Draws
80%
Varea
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varea come out ahead of Ciudad de Alfaro on wins alone.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Varea taking it.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 16 2013/2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Varea have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Ciudad de Alfaro Clean Sheet 19%
Varea Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ciudad de Alfaro Varea
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 19
Draws 4 7
Losses 21 5
Goals Scored 0.6 1.58
Goals Conceded 2.27 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Ciudad de Alfaro vs Varea
3:5
Nov 30, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Ciudad de Alfaro
5:0
May 1, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Ciudad de Alfaro vs Varea
0:5
Dec 15, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Ciudad de Alfaro
2:0
Mar 4, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Ciudad de Alfaro
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ciudad de Alfaro 10 / 100
Varea 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ciudad de Alfaro Varea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Ciudad de Alfaro scored in 40% of their last 30 outings.

Varea has conceded goals in 55% of their last 31 outings.

Away concern: Varea has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Varea
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ciudad de Alfaro

(Home)
16 May
Casalarreina CF
5 : 1
Ciudad de Alfaro
10 May
Ciudad de Alfaro
0 : 4
Yague
03 May
Vianes
4 : 1
Ciudad de Alfaro
25 Apr
Oyonesa
4 : 1
Ciudad de Alfaro
19 Apr
Ciudad de Alfaro
3 : 5
Varea
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Varea

(Away)
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
24 May
Varea
0 : 2
Oyonesa
17 May
Oyonesa
0 : 0
Varea
10 May
Varea
0 : 1
Oyonesa
03 May
Pradejon
0 : 1
Varea
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Varea 38 27 7 4 101:40 88
2 Haro Deportivo 38 23 14 1 92:24 83
3 Naxara 38 22 10 6 86:33 76
4 Anguiano 38 23 7 8 81:38 76
5 Vianes 38 23 4 11 65:41 73
6 Alfaro 38 20 11 7 59:27 71
7 Oyonesa 38 21 8 9 49:32 71
8 CD Calahorra 38 20 11 7 59:27 71
9 Agoncillo 38 14 13 11 56:43 55
10 River Ebro 38 12 11 15 56:65 47
11 CDFC La Calzada 38 10 12 16 39:69 42
12 Ciudad de Alfaro 38 10 9 19 34:58 39
13 Pena Balsamaiso 38 10 7 21 37:74 37
14 Arnedo 38 10 7 21 33:58 37
15 Villegas 38 9 9 20 37:59 36
16 Calasancio 38 9 9 20 32:52 36
17 San Marcial 38 9 6 23 45:78 33
18 Pradejon 38 8 8 22 39:77 32
19 Berceo 38 6 11 21 35:67 29
20 CCD Alberite 38 5 4 29 36:109 19
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2013/2014 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2013/2014 (Main)