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Ciudad de Murcia vs Lorca FC

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 13 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ciudad de Murcia play Lorca FC in the Tercera Division - Group 13 2020/2021. Ciudad de Murcia are favorites here. Recently, Ciudad de Murcia averaged 1 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Lorca FC averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2.57 conceded. In past meetings, Ciudad de Murcia won 2, Lorca FC won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 28, 2021 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Ciudad de Murcia and 1.06 for Lorca FC. This points to a Ciudad de Murcia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

67%
Ciudad de Murcia
15%
Draws
18%
Lorca FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ciudad de Murcia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Ciudad de Murcia picked up more points recently compared to Lorca FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Ciudad de Murcia Clean Sheet 22%
Lorca FC Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ciudad de Murcia Lorca FC
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 11 1
Draws 8 4
Losses 16 25
Goals Scored 1 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.11 2.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Ciudad de Murcia vs Lorca FC
1:0
Nov 29, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Lorca FC vs Ciudad de Murcia
1:2
Feb 16, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Lorca FC vs Ciudad de Murcia
3:1
Sep 29, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Ciudad de Murcia vs Lorca FC
1:2
Mar 10, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Lorca FC vs Ciudad de Murcia
6:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ciudad de Murcia 65 / 100
Lorca FC 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ciudad de Murcia Lorca FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ciudad de Murcia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Ciudad de Murcia & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.2%
1.69
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ciudad de Murcia attacking → ← attacking Lorca FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ciudad de Murcia scored in 63% of their last 35 games.

Lorca FC let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Ciudad de Murcia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lorca FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 7
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Real Murcia B20135236:1444
2Aguilas FC20135243:844
3CA Pulpileno20127130:1143
4UD Los Garres2076722:2127
5Bullense2076723:2527
6UCAM Murcia B2068628:2326
7Club Olimpico de Totana2065917:2323
8E.G. El Palmar2057826:2822
9Minerva20621224:3620
10EDMF Churra20441217:3616
11Plus Ultra20231511:529
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Racing Cartagena Mar Menor FC20134327:1243
2FC Cartagena SAD B20117238:1040
3Racing Murcia20107325:937
4La Union (Malacitano)20106433:1936
5Cartagena FC UCAM2095630:2732
6Mazarron CF2075821:1926
7Deportiva Minera2059618:2024
8Huercal-Overa CF20641017:2722
9Ciudad de Murcia2056913:1821
10Muleno CF20441218:3116
11Lorca FC2011189:574