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Cleethorpes vs Alfreton

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Wilson M.
43' Event
Ligendza S.
(Penalty)
57' Event
Fewster B.

AI Match Summary

Cleethorpes in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cleethorpes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Cleethorpes
15%
Draws
34%
Alfreton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cleethorpes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cleethorpes lately — more wins on the board than Alfreton.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Cleethorpes have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Cleethorpes Clean Sheet 17%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cleethorpes Alfreton
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 8
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.67 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Cleethorpes vs Alfreton
2:1
Sep 16, 2023 FA Cup
Cleethorpes vs Alfreton
2:4
Sep 18, 2021 FA Cup
Cleethorpes vs Alfreton
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cleethorpes Compare

Top Goalscorer Wilson M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fewster B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Alfreton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cleethorpes 31 / 100
Alfreton 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cleethorpes Alfreton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alfreton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Cleethorpes found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Cleethorpes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cleethorpes VS Alfreton
2.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cleethorpes

(Home)
12 Sept
Ashton United
0 : 1
Cleethorpes
05 Sept
Cleethorpes
1 : 2
Newcastle Town
31 Aug
Gainsborough
0 : 3
Cleethorpes
28 Aug
Cleethorpes
1 : 3
Curzon Ashton
25 Aug
Cleethorpes
6 : 0
Whitby
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Alfreton

(Away)
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0
Alfreton
05 Sept
Alfreton
0 : 2
Stratford
31 Aug
Whitby
1 : 4
Alfreton
29 Aug
Alfreton
1 : 2
Warrington Rylands
25 Aug
Alfreton
4 : 0
Hyde
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 9 7 1 1 24:5 22
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 28:16 22
3 Redcar Athletic 9 6 3 0 18:6 21
4 Guiseley 9 6 1 2 22:10 19
5 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 18:14 17
6 Bury FC 9 5 1 3 19:8 16
7 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 18:10 16
8 Workington 9 5 1 3 17:15 16
9 Gainsborough 9 4 1 4 14:12 13
10 Warrington Rylands 9 4 1 4 12:13 13
11 Alfreton 9 4 0 5 15:10 12
12 Whitby 9 4 0 5 14:24 12
13 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
14 Hyde 9 3 2 4 10:17 11
15 AFC Emley 9 2 4 3 8:15 10
16 Lancaster 9 3 1 5 9:17 10
17 Bamber Bridge 10 2 3 5 14:27 9
18 Stockton 10 2 2 6 13:20 8
19 Ilkeston 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
20 Leek Town 9 1 3 5 17:19 6
21 Quorn 9 1 3 5 12:23 6
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 12:19 5
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