Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Morelos, Morelia 
Match Events
7'
7'
Figueroa B.
16'
16'
Robles C.
38'
38'
Jaimes U.
AI Match Summary
Club Atletico Morelia in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
17%
13%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Club Atletico Morelia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Club Atletico Morelia lately — more wins on the board than Atletico La Paz.
- Win probability leans Club Atletico Morelia's way, sitting at 70%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Club Atletico Morelia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 19%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 9 |
| Draws | 9 | 12 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
4:2
Mar 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Club Atletico Morelia
3:0
Mar 15, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
4:1
Sep 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Atletico Morelia 67 / 100
Atletico La Paz 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Atletico Morelia Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Club Atletico Morelia scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.
Defensive concern: Atletico La Paz conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Club Atletico Morelia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Club Atletico Morelia VS Atletico La Paz
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Atletico Morelia
(Home) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 7
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
0 : 0 Tlaxcala
29 Mar
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Irapuato
Page 1 of 4
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
04 Apr
Irapuato
3 : 1 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
