Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Morelos, Morelia 
Match Events
15'
15'
Van Rankin J.
34'
34'
Sub
Dominguez M. In: Lopez Aburto R.
Out: Dominguez M.
38'
38'
Robles A.
Assist: Zurita Jimenez U.
AI Match Summary
Club Atletico Morelia in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Club Atletico Morelia lately — more wins on the board than Atletico La Paz.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Club Atletico Morelia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 15%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
4:2
Mar 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Club Atletico Morelia
3:0
Mar 15, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
4:1
Sep 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer Flores A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lopez Aburto R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Robles A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barragan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Atletico Morelia 35 / 100
Atletico La Paz 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Atletico Morelia Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Club Atletico Morelia found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
Atletico La Paz let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
Recent resilience: Club Atletico Morelia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Club Atletico Morelia VS Atletico La Paz
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Atletico Morelia
(Home) 10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 3 Correcaminos
09 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 3
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 09 Oct
Tapatio
2 : 4 Atletico La Paz
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Tapatio
2 : 4 Atletico La Paz
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28:17 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 5 | Zacatecas Mineros | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25:21 | 18 |
| 6 | Cancun | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21:17 | 18 |
| 7 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 18 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11:11 | 18 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
