Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Morelos, Morelia 
Match Events
15'
15'
Van Rankin J.
34'
34'
Sub
Dominguez M. In: Lopez Aburto R.
Out: Dominguez M.
38'
38'
Robles A.
Assist: Zurita Jimenez U.
AI Match Summary
Club Atletico Morelia in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
17%
13%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Club Atletico Morelia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Club Atletico Morelia lately — more wins on the board than Atletico La Paz.
- 70% — that's where the model lands on Club Atletico Morelia taking it.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Club Atletico Morelia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 19%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 9 | 12 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
4:2
Mar 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Club Atletico Morelia
3:0
Mar 15, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Atletico La Paz
4:1
Sep 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Club Atletico Morelia
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer Flores A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Lopez Aburto R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Robles A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barragan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Atletico Morelia 67 / 100
Atletico La Paz 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Atletico Morelia Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ATL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Club Atletico Morelia found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (33 games).
Atletico La Paz let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.
Recent resilience: Club Atletico Morelia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Club Atletico Morelia VS Atletico La Paz
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Atletico Morelia
(Home) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 7
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3 Cruz Azul
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
0 : 0 Tlaxcala
29 Mar
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Irapuato
Page 1 of 4
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
04 Apr
Irapuato
3 : 1 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venados FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 4 | Alacranes de Durango | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 | Correcaminos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 1 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 1 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 | Jaiba Brava | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 | Piratas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Cancun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 15 | Atletico La Paz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 16 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | 0 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
