Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Morelos, Morelia 
Match Events
23'
23'
del Campo R.
Assist: Dominguez M.
40'
40'
Aguilar D.
41'
41'
Marchand J.
AI Match Summary
Club Atletico Morelia in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Leones Negros haven't matched Club Atletico Morelia's recent run of results.
- 31% — that's where the model lands on Club Atletico Morelia taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 12%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros
2:0
Apr 5, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros
2:3
May 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Club Atletico Morelia
2:0
May 4, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Club Atletico Morelia vs Leones Negros
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Top Goalscorer del Campo R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zamora D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Leones Negros Compare
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Atletico Morelia 56 / 100
Leones Negros 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Atletico Morelia Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Club Atletico Morelia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leones Negros's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 27 matches.
Attacking prowess: Club Atletico Morelia scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Solid form: Club Atletico Morelia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Club Atletico Morelia VS Leones Negros
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Atletico Morelia
(Home) 10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 3 Correcaminos
09 Aug
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 3
Leones Negros
(Away) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28:17 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 5 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
