Sport Picks
Club Atletico Morelia vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Morelos 
Match Events
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Club Atletico Morelia and Tepatitlan de Morelos finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Club Atletico Morelia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Look at the last few games and Tepatitlan de Morelos come out ahead of Club Atletico Morelia on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Tepatitlan de Morelos's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Atletico Morelia | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Atletico Morelia Compare
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Club Atletico Morelia scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Tepatitlan de Morelos let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
Recent resilience: Club Atletico Morelia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |