Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo

Uruguay Uruguay

Copa de la Liga AUF Gran Parque Central, Montevideo
Club Nacional Logo

Club Nacional

Sat, Jan 17, 2026
2 - 1
11:00 PM
Cerro Largo Logo

Cerro Largo

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Sub
Piegas A. In: Chocobar G. F.
Out: Piegas A.
31' Event
Dos Santos A.
59' Event
Monserrat M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Club Nacional in this Copa de la Liga AUF tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Club Nacional
11%
Draws
80%
Cerro Largo
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Cerro Largo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Club Nacional have won more games recently than Cerro Largo.
  • Win probability leans Cerro Largo's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Club Nacional have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Club Nacional, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Club Nacional here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 25%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Club Nacional Cerro Largo
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo
3:0
Jan 17, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Cerro Largo
2:1
Apr 6, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional
0:4
Oct 13, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Club Nacional
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Dos Santos A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Cerro Largo Compare

Top Goalscorer Monserrat M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Club Nacional 13 / 100
Cerro Largo 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Club Nacional Cerro Largo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Club Nacional found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Cerro Largo has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Club Nacional went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Club Nacional VS Cerro Largo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Club Nacional

(Home)
21 Jul
Club Nacional
0 : 3
Tigre
17 Jul
Club Nacional
1 : 2
Wanderers
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
06 Jun
Club Nacional
2 : 1
Juventud
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 7

Cerro Largo

(Away)
25 Jul
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Cerro Largo
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
08 Jun
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Cerro Largo
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0
CA Cerro
23 May
Cerro Largo
3 : 0
Boston River
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Club Nacional1
Maldonado0
Montevideo City2
Cerro Largo3
Defensor Sp.0
Progreso1
Juventud3
Wanderers0
Penarol1
Central Esp.0
Racing Montevideo2
CA Cerro1
Boston River1
Danubio0
Liverpool M.0
Albion2
Quarter-finals
Club Nacional2
Cerro Largo1
Progreso1
Juventud0
Penarol1
Racing Montevideo0
Boston River2
Albion1
Semi-finals
Club Nacional1
Progreso2
Penarol2
Boston River3
Final
Progreso2
Boston River1