Sport Picks
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sp.
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Gran Parque Central, Montevideo 
Match Events
27'
27'
Barrios G.
33'
33'
Frugone A.
35'
35'
Calvo F.
AI Match Summary
Club Nacional in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Nacional.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Club Nacional
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Club Nacional lately — more wins on the board than Defensor Sp..
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Club Nacional taking it.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Nacional | Defensor Sp. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 12 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sp.
3:2
Mar 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Club Nacional
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Club Nacional
1:1
May 18, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sp.
2:1
Dec 6, 2024 Copa Uruguay
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sp.
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Gomez M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Calvo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Defensor Sp. Compare
Top Goalscorer Barrios G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Medina N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Nacional 59 / 100
Defensor Sp. 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Nacional Defensor Sp.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Club Nacional stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Club Nacional scored in 76% of their last 33 games.
Defensor Sp. has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Scoring Trends
Club Nacional VS Defensor Sp.
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Nacional
(Home) 20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1 Club Nacional
06 Sept
Club Nacional
2 : 2 Juventud
03 Sept
River Plate Montevideo
2 : 3 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Club Nacional
2 : 2 Juventud
27 Aug
Club Nacional
0 : 0 Albion
23 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 0 Progreso
09 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 2 Boston River
Page 1 of 4
Defensor Sp.
(Away) 20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Maldonado
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo City | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18:7 | 18 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:5 | 17 |
| 3 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13:5 | 15 |
| 4 | Maldonado | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:9 | 14 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Juventud | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 8 | Racing Montevideo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:7 | 12 |
| 9 | Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 10 | Progreso | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7:9 | 12 |
| 11 | Boston River | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Defensor Sp. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:13 | 8 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5:10 | 5 |
| 14 | Central Esp. | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:13 | 5 |
| 15 | Danubio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2:9 | 4 |
| 16 | Albion | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6:16 | 0 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
