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Coimbroes vs Guarda FC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Coimbroes play Guarda FC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025. Guarda FC are favorites here. Recently, Coimbroes averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. Guarda FC averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. In past meetings, Coimbroes won 0, Guarda FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 26, 2025 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Coimbroes and 1.31 for Guarda FC. This points to a Guarda FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Coimbroes
19%
Draws
56%
Guarda FC
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Guarda FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Coimbroes picked up more points recently compared to Guarda FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Coimbroes Clean Sheet 18%
Guarda FC Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coimbroes Guarda FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 0.9 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Coimbroes vs Guarda FC
0:2
Sep 1, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Guarda FC vs Coimbroes
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coimbroes Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Guarda FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gomes G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coimbroes 26 / 100
Guarda FC 54 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coimbroes Guarda FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarda FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Guarda FC & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Coimbroes attacking → ← attacking Guarda FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coimbroes scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Guarda FC let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Coimbroes went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Guarda FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 35
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Leca26195252:1762
2AD Marco 0926165535:1653
3SC Salgueiros26165539:1853
4Cinfaes26118733:2541
5Beira Mar26109731:2839
6Uniao Lamas261151031:2738
7FC Alpendorada261061026:2436
8Machico2698928:2735
9Camacha26811730:3535
10Guarda FC26951226:3032
11Gondomar26871116:2831
12Coimbroes26561524:4321
13Maritimo B26451725:4917
14Regua26152016:458